UNC statistician partially adjusts for ballpark effects, steroids, etc. in determining best batters

Among the latter are truly knowledgeable folks like the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Dr. Michael J. Schell. He wrote the book on those who ranked at the top of their game. In fact, Schell has written two such books, including Baseball’s All-Time Best Sluggers, just published by Princeton University Press.

In his “real” life, the life-long Cincinnati Reds’ fan is research professor of biostatistics at UNC’s School of Public Health and director of the Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center’s Biostatistics Core Facility. The bulk of his work involves crunching numbers that result from cancer research to boost understanding of that often-devastating illness and improve treatment.

In his free time, though, Schell figures out how well batters since the 1800s have crunched baseballs — after adjusting for such factors as stadium size and height above sea level, players aging, the talent pool, fences’ height and distance from the plate and era of play. His goal has been to level the playing field to the extent possible so that comparing heroes of the sport is fairer and more realistic.

“Many fans believe that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams were the two best offensive players in history, and in Baseball’s All-Time Best Sluggers, I confirmed that they ranked first and second,” Schell said. “The key question then becomes: Who ranks third? After his 2004 season, according to my calculations, Barry Bonds passed Rogers Hornsby to move into third place.”

The UNC scientist adjusted the home run numbers of recent players downward compared to those from earlier eras because the recent jump in home runs did not result from improved hitting ability, he said. Thus, the adjustment accounts in part for steroid use among recent players.

“While 11 players active primarily during the power era from 1993 to 2003 and beyond have raw home runs rates among the all-time top 20, only Barry Bonds ranks in the top 20 after the adjustments I make in the book,” Schell said. “Barry Bonds has had incredible batting performances the past several seasons, and his 2001 to 2004 seasons rank as four of the five best for batting in baseball history.”

For the new book, the UNC professor believes he developed the most in-depth methods ever for dealing with the talent pool and ballpark effects. He is the first to provide ballpark effects for doubles, triples, right- and left-handed homers and strikeouts throughout major league history.

Schell also provides top 100 single-season and career lists for 13 offensive categories after four adjustments. He lists adjusted statistics for 1,140 players with at least 4,000 plate appearances, including their overall batter ranking and their ranking after adjusting for playing position.

Stan Musial edged out Honus Wagner as having the best career for adjusted doubles-plus-triples, he said. Yogi Berra, Pie Traynor and Joe DiMaggio were among players more involved in run scoring than their batting record would suggest.

Mike Piazza, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez are on target for finishing among the top 10 sluggers of all time, the statistician’s work showed.

“Michael Schell has expanded on his original study of Baseball’s All-Time Best Hitters to include all aspects of batting,” said Peter Palmer, co-editor of The Baseball Encyclopedia and co-author of The Hidden Game of Baseball. “There is plenty of math, but it is not necessary to understand the intricacies of the equations to appreciate the results.”

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This release was researched and written by David Williamson of UNC News Services.

Note: Schell can be reached at (919) 966-8150 or michael_schell@unc.edu.

News Services contact: David Williamson, (919) 962-8596

For further information please contact Emily Smith by email at ejsmith@email.unc.edu